After several months of healthy increases, February 2025 new-home sales in Ottawa finally saw a dip.
There were 261 sales in February, a six per cent decline from the 278 sold in February 2024, according to the latest monthly market report prepared by PMA Brethour Realty for the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
In fact, the last time there was a decrease in monthly sales was in April 2024, which was also the only month last year in which new-home sales were lower than the comparable month the year before.
Cheryl Rice, who is president of PMA’s Ottawa office, attributes the slowdown to election uncertainty, new U.S. tariff threats, and mounting economic volatility. “While lower borrowing costs offer optimism for the 2025 new-home market, the ‘Trump turbulence’ has caused some buyers to pause.”
Both new-home and resale buyers are showing caution, she adds, noting that sales data through March “will better reflect true market sentiment.”
While serious buyers are active and builder incentives and lower mortgage costs continue to be effective tools, “move-up buyers in the single-family home segment — a category that has seen a notable slump — are largely staying put, reluctant to give up their low existing mortgage rates amid current uncertainties,” she says.
Demand for singles shrinks
Single-family home sales represented just 23 per cent of the market in February, with more affordable townhomes and condo townhomes capturing the lion’s share at 48 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.
The south end of the city, meanwhile, saw a majority of the sales (56 per cent), with the west coming in at 26 per cent and the east at 17 per cent. Just one per cent of sales were in the central urban core.
“With a new release of condo townhomes in Barrhaven, Caivan generated 40-plus sales, boosting overall sales of this product type,” Rice says. “Towns will continue to be a mainstay for this year at least.”
Despite national and international concerns, Rice offers the reminder that Ottawa’s economy remains resilient thanks to its strong public and professional sectors. “Lower interest rates and a stable job market — with 11,000 new jobs expected this year — support a positive 2025 outlook,” she says. “Still, upcoming federal job cuts could pose future risks, especially for our region.”
In its monthly newsletter last week, real estate firm GoodStory offered some sound advice: “There’s a lot of noise out there, but if you’re thinking about buying or selling, the best move is to focus on your own situation — not the headlines.”
