New-home sales in Ottawa ended with a whimper in 2025, falling 23 per cent in December (compared to December 2024) and down 7.5 per cent for the year as a whole.
The final Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report for 2025 noted 182 sales in December versus 239 the year before.
“After a few years of subdued new home sales, December’s disappointing results were largely expected,” says Cheryl Rice, president of PMA Brethour Realty’s Ottawa office, which prepares the report in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
“While December is typically a slow month, the 2025 seasonal slowdown was more pronounced than usual due to adverse weather conditions, such as heavy snow accumulation and icy roads that kept buyers from visiting the sites.”
And while new-home sales for the year were also down (3,426 versus 3,703 in 2024), she adds that “the year nonetheless closed on a constructive note and continues to be in balanced conditions,” pointing to higher inventory levels giving buyers more choice and time to make decisions and recent interest rate cuts improving affordability.
“Buyers are more selective and price-sensitive,” she adds, “making competitive pricing, targeted incentives and clear value propositions essential. As the market heads into 2026, buyers are doing so with more options and less urgency than in recent years.”
Recent Bank of Canada activity — cutting its prime rate in October to 2.25 per cent and then holding the rate steady in December — “suggests policy rates are now approaching neutral as inflation remains within target,” Rice says. “Additionally, the implementation of tax relief anticipated in the first quarter (of 2026) for first-time buyers, combined with municipal efforts to streamline approvals and reduce upfront costs should help improve affordability and project viability.”
There’s a caveat, however. “Elevated local unemployment and ongoing trade and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on buyer confidence,” she says. “In this context, builders will need to remain disciplined in their approach — focusing on value, incentives and realistic absorption expectations — as the market adjusts to these competing forces in 2026.”
