Continued uncertainty among buyers kept October 2025 new-home sales sluggish, numbers in the latest industry report show.
There were 288 new-home sales in October, according to the Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report prepared by PMA in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA). While that was on par with sales in September (287), it was a drop of 25 per cent versus October 2024, which saw 385 sales. September had also seen a year-over-year drop in sales of 13 per cent.
For a market that has struggled in the past couple of years, it was not a good sign. PMA Ottawa president Cheryl Rice explains: “From a buyer’s perspective, the Canadian housing market in 2024 was characterized by stability and optimism. Federal job security concerns were minimal, Bank of Canada interest rates declined steadily, and trade tariffs did not inflate the cost of goods.
“This created a balanced market where buyers and sellers engaged on relatively equal footing. In contrast, 2025 has seen more cautious buyer behavior due to evolving economic uncertainties and a more complex financial landscape.”
A positive sign in the numbers is that for the year as a whole, sales are relatively steady at 2,940, which is down just three per cent compared to last year’s sales of 3,045. Mind you, that’s still way off the 10-year average of 3,875 and part of the reason that, for the second year in a row, Ottawa expects to lose out on millions in provincial funding that’s tied to reaching housing starts targets.
One surprising observation in October was the popularity of single-family homes. Traditionally, singles and towns jockey for top spot in market share but, in recent years, affordability issues have meant that less expensive townhomes have dominated. In October, however, they were almost equal, with townhomes edging singles 48 per cent to 45 per cent. (Condo apartments and condo townhomes came in a distant third and fourth at four per cent and three per cent respectively.)
“Strong releases of singles by builders such as Minto, Mattamy (Homes) and Caivan, along with other new-home projects, contributed to a notable increase in single-family home sales compared to the previous month,” says Rice, noting a few examples:
- Caivan’s The Conservancy: A relaunch of singles, featuring incentives such as 50 per cent off lot premiums, resulted in 20 sales.
- Minto’s Riversbend: This high-demand community recorded 13 singles sales.
- Mattamy’s Richmond Meadows: Achieved 18 sales with its exclusive single-family offering.
“These sales figures reflect sustained buyer interest in established developments offering alluring incentives, despite broader market caution,” she adds.
Not surprisingly, affordability remains a driving factor in purchasing decisions, she says. “Buyers are increasingly focused on value and cost-effectiveness. Builders like Minto, Mattamy and Caivan have effectively captured market share by offering competitively priced homes that respond to current budget constraints.” (Between them, the three builders accounted for 61 per cent of sales in October.)
“Builder success will depend on their ability to adapt quickly to economic conditions and offer homes that align with current buyer budgets.”
