January 2026 new-home sales were down 16 per cent from the year before for a slow start to the year, according to the latest monthly market report.
There were 255 new homes sold, versus 306 in January 2025, says the Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report, which is prepared by PMA Brethour Realty’s Ottawa in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
The slow start was not a surprise, but “there were a lot of factors contributing to that,” said PMA’s Ottawa president, Cheryl Rice. Speaking at an annual state-of-the-union event for the housing industry Feb. 12 called Hello Goodbye, she pointed to uncertainty among buyers thanks to the ongoing trade war with the United States, employment concerns, affordability and even bad weather.
“It was the lowest January in over a decade, except for 2023,” she said. Still, she’s cautiously optimistic that we’ll see slightly more than the 3,426 new-home sales that were sold in 2025, forecasting 3,500 sales, “with an upside of 3,800 if builder releases accelerate.”
Several builders — including Caivan, eQ Homes, Glenview Homes and Mattamy Homes — are ramping up their marketing efforts for new communities, signalling a positive sign in the market.
“We do expect that sales will start to improve as the first quarter goes on and into the year, and 2026 will be a recovery year,” Rice said. “Rates look like they’re going to hold at 2¼ per cent for some time, and inflation is under control except for groceries … unemployment bears watching, but federal job impacts are expected to have a modest impact on the city’s housing market this year…
“The ingredients for renewed activity are falling into place for the year,” she added. “Ottawa’s new-home market is in a much stronger position than it was this time last year. “
Buyers, she said, “just need to believe that the floor won’t move again, but they’re out there, and their finances are stronger.”
