Despite metaphorical storm clouds on the horizon, January 2025 new-home sales in Ottawa showed healthy activity, according to the latest monthly industry report.
There were 304 new-home sales in January, which is up 13 per cent compared to the 269 sold in January 2024 (and inching closer to the five-year average of 358 for the month), according to the report prepared by PMA Brethour Realty Group on behalf of the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
That’s in contrast to the resale market, which the new-home market typically mirrors. The Ottawa Real Estate Board recently reported that after six straight months of increases, January resale activity slipped 4.2 per cent versus January 2024.
“I’m not surprised by January (new-home) sales as our market has been in recovery mode,” says Cheryl Rice, who is president of PMA Brethour’s Ottawa office. “It’s what happens next,” she adds, referencing looming external forces.
“Local business and consumer concerns about our upcoming federal and provincial elections and the (threat of) U.S. tariffs are likely to pause major financial decisions, including real estate. Higher costs, slower development, higher prices and job losses are all possibilities should the U.S. impose tariffs on Canadian exports.”
But there is reason for optimism, she notes, citing January sales that were driven by lower interest rates, easing inflation and new mortgage measures focused on first-time buyers. “These measures are improving affordability, sparking renewed demand after two years of sluggish sales activity…
“In the absence of tariffs, (factors such as) future rate cuts, policy reforms, innovative designs and competitive pricing strategies and incentives will all play a critical role in affordability, to drive market stability and growth.”
Aiming for the 4,000 mark
As she noted in a forecast to the industry earlier this month, “optimism for 2025 remains strong, with expectations for annual sales to surpass 4,000 homes, driven by demand for affordable, entry-level homes and townhomes at accessible price points.”
Following a familiar pattern, townhomes — which are more affordable than the usually-sought-after singles — dominated market share (55 per cent versus 28 per cent) and the south end of the city captured the highest portion of the market at 43 per cent, although that was significantly lower than the 55 per cent share seen in 2024.
And also following a similar pattern, five builders — Mattamy Homes, Minto Communities, Richcraft Homes, Caivan and Claridge Homes — scooped up a combined 75 per cent of sales.
