July new-home sales continued at the elevated pace we’ve been seeing since the tax rebates were announced this spring, although they did see the typical summer slowdown.
Although lower than the 490 sales we saw in June, July 2026 sales were still 53 per cent higher than the year before (420 vs. 274), according to the latest Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report. Home sales typically fall off in summer.
“Sales have moderated from their spring peak as the market moves into a typical summer slowdown, yet activity remains well ahead of last year, marking the strongest July since 2020,” says Cheryl Rice, Ottawa president of PMA Brethour Realty, which prepares the monthly report in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
Rice expects this momentum to carry through to the end of year, thanks to the federal government’s HST rebate announcement in March. For some buyers, the program could mean a savings of up to $130,000 on the cost of a new-build home.
“With the rebate available on agreements signed through March 31, 2027, this remaining window should encourage buyers to bring purchasing decisions forward, reinforcing activity through the fall market,” Rice says.
For the year to date, there have been 3,090 sales, which is just 336 sales shy of the 3,426 recorded for all of last year, Rice notes. When evaluated against the year-to-date amounts from before the market slowdown in 2022, “current performance demonstrates a steady, sustainable return toward historical norms,” she says.
Townhomes continue to lead the market at 52 per cent of sales, “driven by strong demand for attainable back-to-back units where pricing adjustments have improved affordability,” Rice says, adding that homes built before they are sold — often referred to as spec or quick move-in inventory homes — also “remain primary drivers, as buyers favour immediate delivery over extended construction timelines.”
Along with the tax relief, Rice says broader economic indicators are reinforcing this sales stability. “Canadian GDP rose 0.3 per cent in May, while 75,000 jobs were added in July, lowering the national unemployment rate to 6.4 per cent. Across Ontario, new-home sales more than doubled during the first three months of the HST rebate.”
She does anticipate a rapid market recovery but notes that lower borrowing costs, reduced new supply and improving absorption “signal that the housing correction is bottoming out. Locally, stronger sales paired with declining released inventory are gradually tightening the market, bringing supply and demand back into traditional alignment.”
