Ottawa new-home sales continued to dip in March, extending 2026’s slow start, according to the numbers in the latest Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report. And that was despite a late-month flurry of buyer interest that followed the federal government’s announcement of sales tax relief on new homes.
Prepared by PMA Brethour Realty in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association, the report notes there were 280 new-home sales in March, which was down almost four per cent compared to March 2025, when there were 291 sales. (March 2025 was also down from March 2024.)
Looking at the 10-year average of March sales, the difference is substantially greater, with this year down 31 per cent from the average of 407 sales.
For the year to date, sales are also down five per cent versus the same period last year (813 this year versus 858 last year). But PMA’s Ottawa president, Cheryle Rice, is cautiously optimistic.
“While year-to-date figures show we’ve lost ground over the last three years, the recent sales tax relief announcement has injected a much-needed surge of energy into the market,” she says, adding that her team is noticing “a definitive shift” in what the builder sales centres are reporting since the March 25 announcement.
“Expanding the rebate to all buyers for a full year — offering up to $106,000 in additional relief atop the existing $24,000 — is a significant lever.”
Rice says the “traffic” of prospective buyers visiting sales centres is climbing at most sites and builders are reporting a sharp rise in inquiries.
Digesting the new rules
“However, this isn’t an overnight fix,” she notes. “While interest is high, conversion remains uneven. Buyers are doing their homework but staying cautious, navigating the complexities of rebate eligibility and incentive structures.
“We are in a phase where engagement is high, but firm signatures are trailing slightly behind as the market digests the new rules.”
MORE: What we know about the tax rebates and what we don’t
Rice expects April to outperform early-year trends “as high traffic converts into sales.”
She notes that nearly two-thirds of March sales were townhomes — “a clear reflection of where the market is finding its floor. Demand is laser-focused on affordability and timing. Inventory towns and quick-move-in homes are generating the strongest traction, alongside interest in smaller-lot singles from entry-level buyers using this tax relief as their window of entry.”
There is also an uptick in launches of new builder developments that “signals calculated optimism,” she says. Those launches include:
- Glenview Homes opening April 11 at Ironwood in Riverside South, joining that development’s original builder, Cardel Homes
- eQ Homes launching The Villages at Clarence Crossing in Clarence-Rockland on April 18
- Caivan introducing Magnolia in Stittsville on May 9
- Minto returning to Arcadia in Kanata with a launch also on May 9
- And Claridge Homes launching Alta Vista Quarters on St. Laurent Boulevard later in May
“Builders are betting that new incentives and pent-up demand will outweigh broader economic headwinds, positioning themselves to turn this ‘blip’ into sustained momentum,” Rice says.
She adds that the state of the new-home market needs to be viewed within the context of the City of Ottawa’s 2026 Economic Development Strategy.
“We are entering a stable but subdued cycle,” she says. “With population growth projected at 0.3 per cent annually and federal workforce adjustments expected, the ‘frothy’ growth of the past is behind us.
“Yet, Ottawa’s diversity remains its strength. While the public sector tightens, the tech, construction and defence sectors provide a solid floor. The market is transitioning, no longer driven by speculation, but by pragmatic buyers seeking value in a steady environment.”
