What had been a sluggish market since 2021 saw a dramatic turnaround as April 2026 new-home sales in Ottawa exploded, surging more than 200 per cent above a year earlier and more than 160 per cent above the previous month.
“The Ottawa new-home market just put on a masterclass in bottled-up demand,” says Cheryl Rice, Ottawa president of industry analyst PMA Brethour Realty. “Following a prolonged period of market hesitation, the April surge in sales far surpassed expectations.”
There were 744 sales this April, up 203 per cent from the 245 sold in April 2025, and up 164 per cent over the 281 sold in March. That’s according to the latest Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report, which PMA prepares in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association.
“April marked the highest sales volume for the month in 45 years and the second-highest monthly total on record overall, trailing only October 2019 (which saw) 762 sales,” Rice says.
She adds that while the number of sales in April “was a massive number, it’s best viewed as policy-induced, with the expansion of the HST rebate as the starter pistol. Buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines since the winter — or even since 2024 — all rushed through the door at once to lock in their eligibility.
“What’s likely is that sales from July and August were being pulled forward by buyers who moved up their timeline into April. It’s less of a temporary blip and more of a new, higher baseline for the year.” She explains that the rebate has stimulated the market (with an initial April kick-start) and predicts that momentum will have a positive effect on sales for the remainder of the year.
MORE: Understanding the HST rebate
For the year to date, sales are now up 41 per cent over the same period last year, with 1,558 sales this year versus 1,103 last year. That pushes the region over the five-year average for the year to date for the first time since 2022.
While that spike will “fatten” the data and skew numbers, Rice says it’s not just a statistical variance. “We believe it represents a genuine return to form for a market that has been under-selling. The April spike is more of a market rebound created by the enhanced rebate.”
Perennial market leaders Mattamy Homes and Minto did well, with well over 100 sales each, but also having a good month were Caivan, Richcraft, Claridge Homes and eQ Homes, who all reached four dozen sales or more.
In coincidental but great timing, eQ launched The Villages of Clarence Crossing within a month of the March 25 announcement of the HST rebate, while Glenview Homes had even better timing: it launched sales at Ironwood on April 11, just two and a half weeks after the rebate was unveiled.
Other launches were on deck to follow, with Caivan releasing Magnolia in Stittsville on May 9, Minto returning to Arcadia the same day — both saw buyers lining up overnight — and Claridge set to open Alta Vista Quarters on May 23.
Also interesting is that the share between singles and towns was relatively even following months of townhomes claiming the majority of sales, providing more “buying power” to buyers who might have only been able to afford a townhome before the rebate.
Stable pricing
“That there is more buying power hits the nail on the head,” Rice says. “The shift suggests renewed participation from move-up buyers, supported by improved affordability through the enhanced rebate structure.
“Despite the sharp increase in sales activity, pricing remained relatively stable across most segments. The rebate has effectively bridged the ‘affordability gap,’ allowing townhome buyers to leapfrog into detached singles.”
Looking ahead, Rice says the FOMO factor (fear of missing out) could play a role in May sales numbers.
“The momentum of a busy April could mean a secondary wave of buyers who were afraid to move first but now don’t want to miss out on the best lots or floor plans. Sales may not be as strong as April, but the market will remain robust. Builders who are finally feeling confident enough to release new releases and communities will keep the numbers healthy through the end of the spring.”
That prediction is welcome news coming on the heels of a market forecast update from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) on April 30 that analyzed numbers from the first quarter of 2026 and found a market that is still filled with uncertainty.
While there were indications that buyers could benefit, CMHC predicts housing starts — a key indicator of market health — will underperform this year.
