September 2025 new-home sales in Ottawa took a dip, following “familiar late-summer trends,” says Cheryl Rice of industry analyst PMA Brethour Realty. “This is the time of year when the market naturally catches its breath.”
New-home sales were down four per cent in September compared to August, according to the latest Greater Ottawa New Home Market Report prepared by PMA in partnership with the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA). There were 287 sales in September versus 299 in August.
While the trend may be familiar, September sales were also down significantly from the same month last year, when there were 332 sales — a drop of 13 per cent. September has had wildly fluctuating numbers over the past five years, but when looking a little further back, the numbers were more robust, pointing to a current market that continues to be sluggish.
“This slowdown reflects the uncertainty weighing on both builders and buyers,” Jason Burggraaf, GOHBA’s executive director, said in a release. “Between tariffs, the lack of GST rebate for first time-home buyers and general affordability pressures, there is a lot of hesitation in the market right now which makes it hard to gain momentum.”
Rice adds that townhomes, “a product type that appeals to first-time and move-down buyers for its affordability, are really what’s holding the market steady right now, while single-family home sales are easing. And although we’re seeing more housing diversity, the missing middle still isn’t being built fast enough.”
Townhomes made up 55 per cent of sales in September, followed by singles at 31 per cent and condo towns and apartments combining for 14 per cent.
She notes that sales from Mattamy Homes and Minto accounted for nearly half of all sales in the month, driven by Mattamy’s relaunch of three-storey, back-to-back townhomes in Wateridge Village and Minto’s new phase release in Mahogany. Rounding out the top five were Caivan, Richcraft and eQ Homes. Glenview Homes also released and quickly sold five of the three-storey, back-to-back townhomes at The Commons in Orléans.
Despite pent-up demand and favourable lending rates — the Bank of Canada cut its key rate in September for the second time this year, down to 2.5 per cent — affordability and concerns about the economy, tariffs and job cuts continue to have a negative effect.
For the year to date, sales have held steady against last year — 2,652 this year versus 2,660 last year — and are expected to finish slightly above 2024 numbers, supported by lower rates and strong demand, Rice says.
“So far, 2025 has been steady but modest, while 2026 holds some upside potential, if rate cuts and buyer confidence outweigh risks from U.S. trade tensions and local federal job cuts. We’re not expecting fireworks, but buyers will adapt to the new trade landscape, encouraging steady growth.”
She notes that Ottawa remains one of the country’s most balanced markets.
